The Global Economy and Business

Every year Franchise Recruiters Ltd. (FRL) conducts a study and analysis of the tendencies of franchise business. Unfortunately I managed to get access only to the materials for the year 2005 but I hope they will allow making some interesting conclusions. As I think the main tendencies and relations remained the same for thus year too.
 
The procedure of survey was rather usual. The main data were collected while asking questions about the current situation and business forecast. But unlike International Franchise Association FRL interviewed 100 of the top U.S. franchise executives. On the one hand it increases the statistical error of the survey as they asked only leaders. But on the other hand I think the information can be useful at least because the leaders understand the market and the business, they have enough experience to predict what factors will benefit or hurt them. Why? Because they are the leaders…
 
So the first thing to say about concerns general growth. Top U.S. franchise executives predict 6% growth in net new unit development. What do they mean by “net”? They subtract closing companies from new ones. It means that number of new franchisees will grow even more than by 6%. If to compare this to the growth of GDP as the main economic indicator the interesting thoughts come to my mind. The U.S. gross domestic product growth was projected to be 3.3% in 2005; it’s two times lower than franchise number growth and also lower than the same indicator in 2004. My comments:
- growth in number of franchises is not caused by high revenue expectations of prospective franchisees; maybe they think franchise way of starting a business to be more attractive or easier in comparison with the standard one; it becomes more evident against a background of slowing of the economy in general;
- growth in number of franchises will increase the level of competition, especially in such traditional franchise industries as food and retail sales. As a result the market can see the decrease of prices (better variant for consumers) or decrease in quality (in order to provide at least any profit to companies). Anyway I think that at least in traditional franchise industries new companies can get much less profit than they assume.
 
The respondents also mentioned some other negative factors that can influence business development:
-slower overall economic retail expansion;
-relatively high energy prices;
-real estate tribulations;
-shipping cost surcharges
-and rising interest rates.
Also they mentioned prices as a very important factor. People are already hurt by increased oil prices and are not ready to inflation in any other industry.
My comments:
Franchisors (based on franchisees requirements and their own researches) have to think a lot about the ways to decrease the other costs and to increase the productivity. Maybe they need to examine the following variants:
-introduce new technologies (better equipment, informational and electronic systems, new materials, etc.);
-look for new suppliers of equipment and materials (check the opportunities provided by countries with cheaper labor force);
-outsource the less competitive parts of their business and so on.
At the same time they really need to shift the main accent toward attracting consumers. As I see it would be very difficult to hold the winning position without interesting advertising campaigns, better package, additional services, and improving public position and company reputation. It is the responsibility of almost every franchisor: the time will never forgive that delay, and another franchisor in the same industry will get the benefits of 6% growth I wrote about in the beginning of that post…
 
I’m going to continue commenting that survey later as it contains many other interesting facts and forecasts. But for this moment I wish to make a short conclusion. The situation in a franchise sphere is very controversial. On the one hand we see that more people believe in franchising as a way to start their business. On the other hand we understand that they will face an extraordinary competition supported by other negative factors. I suppose that in a short period of time it will result in a greater differentiation among franchisors. Those using new methods in business will take a bigger part of the pie. The others who rely only on traditional instruments and approaches will loose their positions.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 13th, 2006 at 2:17 pm and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.