USA and China: “In one harness?”
Today analysts of the various countries recognize China as the candidate on capture of world leadership in the post crisis world. China - unique from large powers with rather stable economic growth. It is expected, that gross national product of China will increase by 8 % in 2009.
The country successfully realizes an anti-recessionary package (16 % from gross national product within two years), stimulating internal demand. And this package is already recognized as one of the best and effective in the world. Industrial production grows in China the fourth month. Value of an index of managers of purchases has grown to 53,2 points in June with 53,1 in May (above 50 - growth). Volume of export orders has grown In June in comparison with May.
China is the largest investor of the USA market of state papers. China continues interventions to the market of the American state papers, despite doubts concerning stability of the USA economy. It does not have other choice, except to continue massed injections to the American economy through purchase of state papers because in the conditions of world crisis it is the unique large market with sufficient liquidity which corresponds to scope of the Chinese investments. About a quarter of an external state debt of the USA belongs to China, according to the American Ministry of Finance.
The exact structure of state investments of China is the state secret, however, by estimations of different sources, the share of dollar actives in them makes an order of 70 % at total amount $1,953 bln.
China has got stuck in “a dollar trap”, mark both western and Chinese analysts. The current policy of the American authorities can lead to a collapse of dollar and world inflation. One of the basic fears of the Chinese authorities is called by attempts of the USA to overcome a present economic crisis by means of flooding economy with money that can lead to inflation and reduction of cost of the American actives that will extremely negatively be reflected at economy of China. On the one hand, China is not interested in dollar crisis, therefore continues injections in economy of the USA, on the other - the authorities of China are interested in stability of the USA economy more and more. In this connection China has once again brought up a question about creation of new international reserve currency. Many analysts consider, that recent falling of dollar is connected with this.
“It is necessary to create new reserve currency, which will not be adhered to economy of its emitter to prevent lacks of such currency”, - is spoken in the economy review for 2008, let out by National bank of the Peoples Republic of China. The head of the Central Bank of China Chjou Siaochuan has suggested the world states to create new reserve currency and to expand powers of the International currency fund (IMF) in this sphere. “The special rights of loan” of IMF or gold can play the role of international currency.
However, a number of experts underlines, that in immediate prospects dollar has nothing to be afraid. There are more sceptically adjusted experts concerning dollar, but also they recognize, that the importance of dollar cannot be changed for one day. “We can see additional reserve currencies” though this event “is not going to occur this night” the professor of economy of New York university Nuriel Rubini has noted.
